Xinao shares (600803): Natural gas integration layout or promote value revaluation

Xinao shares (600803): Natural gas integration layout or promote value revaluation

It is planned to integrate the upstream, midstream and downstream of natural gas, or it will promote the value revaluation of Xinao Group as the energy section of Xinao Group. It is planned to acquire the Hong Kong stock Xinao Energy32.

81% equity may promote the revaluation of the company.

If the transaction is completed, Xinao Energy will merge the scope of Xinao shares. We have measured that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2018 will be increased by 64%, and the asset structure will be optimized.

If the merger is completed, Xinao shares will form an integrated layout of natural gas upstream, midstream and downstream, and high-quality Hong Kong stocks will return to urban fuel assets, or become a scarce integrated gas target.

The EPS of Xinao is expected to be 1 in 19-21.

10/1.

26/1.

56 yuan (not considering the consolidation of Xinao Energy), with reference to the comparable company’s 19-year average P / E12x, there is a potential estimated premium, and we give the company a 19-year target P / E of 13-14x, corresponding to a target price of 14.

35-15.

45 yuan / share, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

  The proposed acquisition of equity of Hong Kong-listed Xinao Energy and the creation of a scarce integrated gas target. The acquisition of Xinao Energy by Xinao Shares is an important layout for the upstream, midstream and downstream integration of the Group’s large-scale energy sector.

After the equity acquisition is completed, Xinao Shares will hold Xinao Energy32.

With 81% of shares, Xinao Energy will be divided into the consolidation scope of Xinao shares.

We estimate that the acquisition will increase the performance of Xinao shares. After the completion of the acquisition, the net profit of Xinao shares will be approximately 21 in 2018.

6 ppm (64% thicker), of which Xinao Energy’s net profit contributed about 68%, the balance sheet was optimized substantially in real time, and high-quality Hong Kong stocks returned to the city.

If the transaction is completed, the company will cover the entire industrial chain of natural gas upstream and downstream, and become the target of a scarce integrated gas.

Before the announcement of the equity acquisition, Xinao shares were 9 times P / E in 19 years, and Xinao Energy was 17 times P / E in 19 years. The overestimation of gas assets may promote the revaluation of the company.

  New Austrian Energy: Strong growth of city-fired leader, multi-point flowering of new business benefiting from the “coal control” policy. We expect the apparent domestic demand for natural gas in 2020 to be 353 billion cubic meters (two-year compound growth rate 成都桑拿网 of 12%), to 2030年 年需求进一步扩大7,048亿立方米(10年复合增速7%)。
Xinao Energy is the leader of China City Fuel, operating 201 city fuel projects nationwide. In 2018, its gas sales accounted for 6% of the domestic apparent consumption of natural gas, ranking third in city fuel.

Due to the rapid growth of domestic natural gas demand, Xinao Energy’s net profit after deducting non-return to mothers reached 32 in 16-18.

1/37.

3/44.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 17% / 16% / 20% in ten years, ROE is stable at more than 20%.

At the same time, the value-added and integrated energy businesses of 1H19 achieved revenue of 10% respectively.

400 million and 10.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 125 in ten years.

4% and 176.

2%, the new business may become a new bright spot in the performance of Xinao Energy.

  The first coverage is given a “Buy”杭州桑拿 rating with a target price of 14.

35-15.

45 yuan is expected to the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 2019-2021 (without considering the consolidation of Xinao Energy) 13.

6/15.

5/19.

200 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.

10/1.

26/1.

56 yuan, currently in line with the corresponding 2019-2021 9.

5x / 8.3x / 6.

7 times price-earnings ratio.

Since the company’s main business covers coal production and trade, methanol production and trade, energy engineering business, and LNG production and processing business, we have selected comparable companies in their respective industries. With reference to the 19-year average P / E12x of comparable companies, there is a potential estimated premium. We getThe company’s 19-14 13x target P / E corresponds to a target price of 14.

35-15.

45 yuan / share, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

  Risk warning: Coal and methanol prices fluctuate, and the economic downturn drags down natural gas demand.