Daqin Railway (601006) Operation data review for March 2019: Daily traffic returns to high levels. Coal ports move south or variables exist

Daqin Railway (601006) Operation data review for March 2019: Daily traffic returns to high levels. Coal ports move south or variables exist

Core point of view The average daily traffic volume of the Daqin Line in March returned to the high of 125 indicators. Considering the impact of spring maintenance and high power plant inventory, 北京桑拿洗浴保健 the daily traffic volume of the Daqin Line in April is expected to be about 105.

The relocation or suspension of Qin Gang will help reduce the impact of diversion if it is true.

Tax and fee reductions are expected to have limited impact, benefiting from the reorganization of the Daqin Line or continuing to maintain full load.

  Daily shipments returned to 125 attachments in March, and shipments in Q1 2019 decreased slightly by 3.

7% remained high.

In March 2019, the company’s core asset Daqin Line completed a freight volume of 3885 to reduce at least 0.

6%.

The average daily volume is 125.

In March, it basically met our previous expectations.

Daqing-Qin Line in 2019Q1 has gradually completed freight volume1.

100 million tons, a reduction of 3 per year.

At 7%, the daily growth rate of 122% is still high.

  Affected by spring maintenance and high power plant inventory, the average daily traffic in April is about 105.

As of March 31, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 66.

In the initial period, it increased by 35 compared with February.

1%; The coal inventory of the six major power generation groups was 1571, a decrease of 8 from February.

1%; Qingang coal inventory is 640 tons, a month-on-month increase of 17.
.

2%.

As of April 8, before the inventory of the six major power generation groups and Qingang coal was adjusted to 1552, 642, the Daqin line entered April for a spring maintenance period of about 25 days on April 7.
4 hours, or 10 daily shipments?
20 mm), considering the impact of maintenance and high factory inventory, the daily shipment volume of the Daqin line in April or 105 mm.

  The coal port moved south, and Qin Port was relocated or stopped.

According to the Erdos Coal Network report, Deputy Minister of Transport He Jianzhong stated at the port meeting that he explicitly opposed the Hebei Province’s approach to Qin Port relocation and coal transfer. If it is true, coal ports will move south or there will be variables.

According to reports, He Jianzhong pointed out that Qin Port as a coal transportation function is a national strategy, and it is required to continue to play an important role as the main coal hub port.

We predict that if the relocation is implemented, the net profit of the company will decrease by 75 million for each 1000-minute diversion of Qingang to Caofeidian Port.

If the coal port moves south, the suspension will help reduce the company’s diversion impact.

At the same time, the acquisition of Tanggang Railway improves the collection and distribution system itself and independence, and may contribute equity in 20193.

5 billion.

  Reduce fees or affect company income.

About 3%, is expected to benefit from accelerated marketization.

During the two sessions, China Railway always stated that the railway promoted tax reduction and fee reduction, and the extension was changed from 10% to 9%. The freight rate of railway freight subsequently decreased and passed to the downstream of the industrial chain in equal amounts.

In addition, starting from April 1, the railway canceled dump truck operation services and reduced 10 miscellaneous fees such as deferred occupancy fees for trucks. It is expected that the cancellation or reduction of some miscellaneous fees will affect the company’s revenue1.

5?
2.

500 million, accounting for 0 of 2018 forecast revenue.

About 3%.

The government work report pointed out that the reform of monopoly fields such as railways will be deepened, and competitive businesses will be fully introduced to the market.
The marketization of railway transportation enterprises is accelerating. In the future, the operation mechanism of the Daqin Railway will be more flexible, and there is room for penetration in cost optimization.

  Risk factors: The demand for thermal coal is less than expected, the imported coal exceeds expectations, and railway reforms are below expectations.

  Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

The average daily traffic volume in March was 125.
3 Preliminary, basically in line with expectations.

Considering the impact of maintenance and high power plant inventory, the daily transportation volume of the Daqin Line in April or 105 inches.

We maintain our net profit forecast for 2018-2020 of 145.

200 million / 146.

700 million / 147.

50,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.

98/0.

91/0.

91 yuan.

If the coal port moves to the south and stops, the first channel of the West Coal to East Transport may have an advantage or strengthen.

The beneficiary structure is improved or maintained at full capacity, and the attractiveness of high yield is enhanced.

Maintain “Buy” rating.