Gemdale Group (600383): 2019 results expected to increase 20% of financing advantages highlighting attractive dividends

Gemdale Group (600383): 2019 results expected to increase 20% of financing advantages highlighting attractive dividends
Predicting a maximum profit growth of 21% in 2019, we expect the company to achieve a net profit of US $ 9.8 billion in 2019, corresponding to a growth rate of 21% and corresponding profit2.17 yuan, basically consistent with market consensus expectations.  Points for Attention Profits in 2019 and 2020 are expected to increase steadily by 20%, and gross profit margin will decrease slightly.We expect the company’s profit to grow 21% and 19% annually in 2019 and 2020, respectively.Taking into account that the settlement of high gross profit projects in 2018 pushed up the gross profit margin base (the gross profit margin base after tax in 2018 was 31%, which is the highest value in recent years), our revenue company’s gross profit margin after tax in 2019 and 2020 will fall to 29% and 27%.  Initial sales growth is expected to exceed 10%.The company realized a budget of US $ 12.2 billion in January 2020, and achieved a continuous growth rate of 15% without a low base in the same period last year. -12%).We expect the company’s sales growth to reach over 10% in 2020, corresponding to a planned over 230 billion yuan.In January 2020, the company added three new projects in Harbin and Qingdao, with an additional 390,000 m2 of soil storage, corresponding to a land acquisition volume of 31 trillion, accounting for 25% of the total during the same period.We expect the company to obtain land in advance in the first quarter affected by the epidemic situation, and in the second quarter will choose opportunities to replenish stocks in the land market.  The financial security is high, and the advantages of the financing side are prominent.As of 3Q19, the company had cash in hand covering interest denies due within one year1.8 times, high margin of cash safety; net debt rate of 68%, 10 segments lower than the interim report; average financing cost 4.8%?4.9%, a low level in the industry.We expect the company to continue its financial endurance and this year’s net interest rate will be controlled below 80%.Recently, the company’s public offering of bonds in 2020 has been replaced by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The proposed amount of issue is 110 megabytes, with a term of no more than 20 years (including 20 years).  Maintain high dividends and high dividend yields.We expect the company to maintain a dividend ratio of around 35%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5 in 2019/2020.9% / 6.7%, which is significantly higher than the average level of our covered housing enterprises4.7% / 5.6%.  Estimates and recommendations We keep the company’s 2019/2020 profit forecast unchanged?Profit forecast 夜来香体验网 for 2021 2.97 yuan.The company is currently trading at 5.0/4.4x 2020/2021 forecast P / E ratio.We maintain our Outperform rating and, given that local industry policy adjustments are driving market risks to the sector, we raise our target price by 8% to 16.83 yuan, the new target price corresponds to 6.5/5.7 times the target price-earnings ratio of 2020/2021 and a 30% upside.  Risks are mainly laid out Tighter-than-expected city tightening policies; the new crown epidemic lasts longer than expected.